With economic turmoil ravaging world markets, political or economic instability anywhere comes with incrementally higher stakes. Russia’s most recent conflict with the Ukraine and last year’s clampdown on the Caucasus state of Georgia has undoubtedly had ripple effects. The road ahead for the central Asian nation of Kazakhstan, nestled awkwardly between its powerful Russian and Chinese neighbors, may be equally ambiguous and fraught with potentially-hazardous unknowns.
ខណៈពេលដែលក្នុងរយៈពេលប៉ុន្មានឆ្នាំចុងក្រោយនេះ ប្រទេសដែលសម្បូរប្រេង និងធនធានបានរីករាយដោយស្ងាត់ស្ងៀមនូវផលផ្លែនៃតម្លៃប្រេងពិភពលោកខ្ពស់ ស្ថានភាពសេដ្ឋកិច្ចពិភពលោកនាពេលថ្មីៗនេះបានបន្សល់ទុកពពកខ្មៅងងឹតនៅលើផ្តេក។
“Very soon Kazakhstan will face many serious problems, and problems with a catastrophic context that only begin with a slowing and stopping of economic growth,” warned Murat T. Laumulin, chief researcher at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank under the aegis of the office of the country’s president.
Laumulin even pegs the instability, at least partially, on his country’s influential neighbors. “This is the new Russian neo-imperialism; it is the reality.”
The new Putin doctrine
Laumulin describes the new Putin doctrine as a slowly-creeping strategy to reunify the countries of the former Soviet Union – not by political or brutal methods as in the past – but simply by using economic instruments as a measure of force.
Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia is one of accommodation; an important piece of the puzzle is its neighbor’s desire for influence in the post-Soviet space. While Russia may tolerate business dealings with the west, the Holy Grail is a continued coordination of military cooperation with Russia. And this, Laumulin says, Kazakhstan understands and even accepts.
What is at stake for Kazakhstan is a romance with the west that began during Gorbachev’s Perestroika. Escaping its Soviet heritage in the 1990s, Kazakhstan was open for business. US oil giant Chevron was invited to exploit the vast oil reserves of the Caspian basin, while at the time, lower oil prices did not make tapping these reserves very attractive – until recently, all this had changed.
But Kazakhstan is still firmly under the influence of Russia, which in recent years, has flexed its economic and political muscles – with oil and gas as its main weapon. On its own soil, it has precipitated the withdrawal of foreign companies from the oil and gas business and even jailed businessmen who have strayed away from the Kremlin’s grasp. With this, who knows how long Russia will tolerate the Kazakh grandeur of allowing western companies to tap into their vast reserves?
“The current president is the guarantor of the existence of these deals agreed [upon] just after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” warned Laumulin, an echeloned former high-level diplomat. “With the corruption facts, I cannot guarantee that after his disappearing, some people from the elite would try to renew these agreements, including Chevron.”
វិបត្តិនយោបាយ
This brings us to the second potential crisis for Kazakhstan – a political one. This country may also be on the precipice of a political vacuum that is primed by a power struggle among the political elite as it looks for a successor to strong man President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has ruled this country since 1989.
“Russia has found the mechanism of power changing from Yeltsin to Putin, Putin to Medvedev. We have no such model, unfortunately,” lamented Laumulin, who sees a power struggle already taking place based on clan, regional, ethnic, and geopolitical orientations.
ការភ្នាល់គឺចេញនៅលើកន្លែងដែលសន្លឹកបៀនឹងធ្លាក់លើភូមិសាស្ត្រនយោបាយ។ ខណៈពេលដែលកំពុងឈរនៅជ្រុងម្ខាងក្នុងវិស័យនយោបាយ និងសេដ្ឋកិច្ចដែលជាផលប្រយោជន៍របស់រុស្ស៊ី កាហ្សាក់ស្ថាន ទោះជាយ៉ាងនេះក្តី កាហ្សាក់ស្ថានបានដើរតួរឱ្យមានតុល្យភាពដ៏ស្មុគស្មាញរវាងប្រទេសជិតខាងក្នុងតំបន់ដ៏មានឥទ្ធិពលផ្សេងទៀតរបស់ខ្លួន គឺប្រទេសចិនដែលកំពុងកើនឡើង និងមានឥទ្ធិពល។
What Kazakhstan may fear even more than Russian domination – a fact under which it has long lived – is a Sino-Russian domination embodied in the uncertain future of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
“Many experts regard this organization as the Sino-Russian condominium over central Asia,” Laumulin said. “We accept the traditional Russian influence and our historical and political ties with Moscow, but we don’t – and cannot – accept the Chinese-Russian domination.”
ទីបំផុត វាជាការជះឥទ្ធិពលដល់ប្រជាជាតិដ៏ធំល្វឹងល្វើយដែលមានប្រជាជនត្រឹមតែ 15 លាននាក់ក្នុងការភ្ញាក់ពីដំណេកមួយព្រឹក ហើយត្រូវបានគ្រប់គ្រងដោយសេដ្ឋកិច្ចដោយផលប្រយោជន៍រុស្ស៊ី ឬចិន។
អនាគតមិនច្បាស់លាស់
Despite being the most wealthy and stable country in central Asia, cracks in the country’s development already began to be felt during the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, which jolted the mushrooming real estate development projects in the country’s decade-old capital, Astana.
រាជធានីដ៏លេចធ្លោមើលទៅហាក់ដូចជាគ្រឿងអលង្ការចម្រុះពណ៌នៃភាពទំនើប ជាមួយនឹងអគារខ្ពស់ៗថ្មីៗ និងរថយន្តស្ទូចសំណង់ដែលកំពុងកើនឡើង - ស្ទូចដែលកាន់តែស្ងប់ស្ងាត់នៅពេលដែលប្រទេសនេះទទួលរងឥទ្ធិពលពីវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ចអន្តរជាតិ។
While there is strong agreement within the political and economic elite on the development of western standards in economic terms, the challenge lies in maintaining a political framework for these changes as it transitions towards a bona fide democratic state. At the moment, Laumulin laments that his nation remains in an impasse.
“Ten years ago, I dreamed about the restoration of the Soviet Union with democratic and normal principals. Then I was dreaming about closer ties with Europe and Eurasia – the post-Soviet space as one geopolitical and geo-economic organization. Now I have no answers. I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Montreal-based cultural navigator Andrew Princz is the editor of the travel portal ontheglobe.com. On August 4, 2009, he will present The Real Kazakhstan in Montreal at CinemaSpace at the Segal Centre for Performing Arts. The evening will be a voyage in image and sound to the Central Asian nation. For tickets, please call the box office at 514-739-7944 or go to www.segalcentre.org/en/cinemaspace.
អ្វីដែលត្រូវយកចេញពីអត្ថបទនេះ៖
- This country may also be on the precipice of a political vacuum that is primed by a power struggle among the political elite as it looks for a successor to strong man President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has ruled this country since 1989.
- ខណៈពេលដែលក្នុងរយៈពេលប៉ុន្មានឆ្នាំចុងក្រោយនេះ ប្រទេសដែលសម្បូរប្រេង និងធនធានបានរីករាយដោយស្ងាត់ស្ងៀមនូវផលផ្លែនៃតម្លៃប្រេងពិភពលោកខ្ពស់ ស្ថានភាពសេដ្ឋកិច្ចពិភពលោកនាពេលថ្មីៗនេះបានបន្សល់ទុកពពកខ្មៅងងឹតនៅលើផ្តេក។
- Laumulin, chief researcher at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank under the aegis of the office of the country’s president.
